The Labour Party won the 2005 UK general election with 35.3% of the popular British vote. The Conservative Party was just a few points behind with points behind at 32.3% of the popular vote, but because of the first past the post voting system, the Labour Party had a significant majority with 356 parliamentary seats […]
Continue Reading General Election 2010 Poll Results
This poll is not worth a damn if you cant vote for ALL Parties, noted is absence of BNP. It therefore lacks any legitimacy
That’s what “Other Political Party” vote option is for. If there’s mass support for a political party I’ve missed, wouldn’t we expect to see the Other Political Party vote to be much, much higher? Last week Other Political Party votes accounted for 7.92% of the votes, that 7.92% covers a lot of potential parties and over the last few weeks it’s around 6%.
At the last general election the BNP gained 0.7% of the popular vote, all 2010 by-elections that the BNP have stood in point to the BNP again polling low (2% if they are lucky) at the 2010 general election, so why would I include such a minor political party which will probably again get no MPs?
The political parties below have more right to be in the poll than the BNP since they gained MPs in 2005 and none of them are included in the main general election poll:
SNP Party : 6 MPs
Democratic Unionist Party : 9 MPs
Sinn Féin Party : 5 MPs
Ulster Unionist Party : 1 MP
Social Democratic and Labour Party : 3 MPs
Independent Parties : 1 MP
Respect Party : 1 MP
Health Concern Party : 1 MP
All the above will account for much of the 7.9% of the Other Political Party votes last week.
When I had BNP as a voting option, BNP activists campaigned to get people to vote in the poll that threw the polls numbers way off what the British public will likely vote at the general election, making the poll useless!
Since removing BNP as an option, BNP activists no longer actively campaign (they no longer post on the BNP websites to come here) to send their supporters to this site to vote and now the vast majority of visitors to my site are organic search engine traffic (mostly from Google for searches like General Election Poll).
If the organic search engine visitors had a high proportion of BNP voters, we’d expect to see the same number of previous BNP votes going to the Other Political Parties option and it’s not happened: see https://general-election-2010.co.uk/weekly-general-election-poll-results/ the Other Political Parties votes has averaged around 6% since I started tracking the votes weekly, yet over the entire period of the poll Other Political Parties (which included the votes the BNP got before I removed that option) is at 12%.
Pretty much proves the BNP activists campaigning to get their supporters to manipulate this poll resulted in about half the current Other Political Party votes and now they are no longer actively campaigning, we are seeing a true representation of how the British public will vote.
That means well under 6% of visitors who vote in the poll are considering voting BNP. The BNP will probably get around 2% in the general election.
If I’m way off (they gain 15% and a half a dozen MPs) feel free to post “I told you so” after the general election, sometime in May :-)
Note: I will not allow this poll pages comments to descend into pointless BNP comments, if you want to state a political point of view, state it clearly without resorting to insulting anyone, otherwise your comment will be deleted.
David
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The fact is when you had the BNP on your poll page they were getting over 18% of the vote. Out polling labour and the Lib Dems. So how about your honesty and real motives. Or are you as guilty of elephant in the room syndrome. Denying British people our democratic rights. Poll aint worth a damn as I said
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You honestly believe the British National Party will gain 18% of the vote in the 2010 general election? Seriously???
If you do could you please explain why the BNP haven’t won a single by-election since the EU election in 2009 and I believe have lost every by-election deposit (you have to get 500 votes to get your deposit back).
The BNP have also lost council seats in recent local elections, so rather than building on their limited success in the EU elections (2 MEPs, which I put down to a protest vote not a real votes for the BNP).
Everything points to BNP support failing in 2010, not increasing and certainly no where near 18%.
BTW at one point the Monster Raving Loony party was above the BNP in this poll and that happened over night because of one popular forum.
I can’t wait for after the general election when I start rubbing BNP commenter’s noses in the truth, though I guess they’ll come up with some big conspiracy theory about postal votes why they lost all those general election deposits :-)
I’ll remind you once again:
Note: I will not allow this poll pages comments to descend into pointless BNP comments, if you want to state a political point of view, state it clearly without resorting to insulting anyone, otherwise your comment will be deleted.
I do not want this page filled with retarded BNP rubbish that I’m part of some government conspiracy.
Now back up your assertion the BNP will gain 18% in the next general election (I bet he doesn’t answer this question and resorts to some BNP conspiracy rubbish)?
David
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In regards to the poll, you are completely right. Neil he quite clearly explained that the reason the British National Party received 18% in the poll was because supporters where being directed from their web page to the poll. Therefore the poll is not “organic” ie not reflective of the public as a whole or even online traffic. It would be like going into an old peoples home to work out the average population of the UK. Don’t be so dogmatic in your support of any party, look at the policy and credentials of all the parties and PPC’s and vote based on that, not simply rhetoric.
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why cant i vote for the socialist labour party!?
The Socialist Labour party received 0.1% of the vote in the 2005 general election with just 20,192 votes through the entire country.
I used to have the top 25 political parties by popular vote, but anything beyond the main parties is meaningless in a poll even with 10,s of thousands of votes because if a party like the Socialist Labour party receives similar support in 2010 as it did in 2005 then when this poll hits 30,000 votes the Socialist Labour party would expect to have around 30 votes.
To throw the general election poll number off all it would take is one website that has a lot of Socialist Labour party support to ask their visitors to vote in the poll. If a few hundred voted it would suggest support for that party has increased 10 fold since the 2005 general election.
I had this problem with the British National Party when it was a option in the general election poll, at one point the BNP had about a third of the votes because of BNP activists manipulating the vote!!! Also had this issue with the Monster Raving Loony party when a forum decided to send 800+ of it’s visitors over a 24hr period as a joke to vote Monster Raving Loony Party!
With the poll now only including major parties, it’s harder to manipulate. Yes a popular website could manipulate the results, but as far as I can tell it’s only happened with two minor parties, BNP and Monster Raving Loony Party.
If you want to show your support for a minor party like the Socialist Labour party, make your vote as Other Political Party and make a comment here saying why you plan to vote for them. Just make it more than:
“I’ll be voting Socialist Labour party”
As comments like that are irritatingly pointless and add nothing to the debate and I delete a lot of comments like that.
David
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whats the point of labour and conservative. cause in my opinion they’re a bunch of winning children. im suprised people dont get tired of hearing the same rubbish from both parties.
I’m not one for correcting spelling, but I’m assuming you meant whining rather than winning (as in to win) :-))
Actually the comment is right, they do win all the time as it’s always Labour or Conservative in power and I’d also agree they are very childish at times!
David
I will be voting Liberal Democrats.
They helped out Scottish Students when they formed the coalition government in the First Scottish Parliament. Abolishing tuition fees got me to first notice them.
Since then, I have come to realise that I actually agree with them much more than Labour (Who I was brought up to support) and way much more than the Tory nonsence.
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I will be voting UKIP.
I turned my back on the main parties when they failed to give us a vote on giving away our Sovereignty. On this day, there ceased to be true democracy in Britain. 84% of voters want a reforendum on the EU and they are ignored.
Nobody under the age of 53 has ever had their say on this subject and as it becomes ever increasingly powerfull, ever increasingly corrupt and ever increasingly socialist, I believe our ability to govern our own affairs is reduced accordingly.
If you are a patriot, if you care about your future and if you respect the democratic process, vote UKIP. In another 5 years it may be too late.
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Just to clear up something. I keep hearing people say a vote for UKIP is a vote for the Labour Party.
No a vote for UKIP is a vote for democracy.
If there is a hung Parliament, The Conservatives will look at the 12% of votes lost to Eurosceptic parties and have a rethink.
The Conservatives will move a step to the right, get rid of Cameron, embrace a Eurosceptic stance and win back the votes lost to UKIP and the BNP. Then we will have a main party that represents the true will of Conservatives.
There will then be another election within six months and the Conservatives will win with a landslide majority.
In the meantime the Lib Dems having committed absolutely everything to their second campaign will have to file for bankruptcy and Labour have to return to the bosom of the Unions in order to survive.
Tories are back where they were. Labour is back where it was, the Lib Dems dissapear, as do UKIP and BNP. Everyone is happy again and we enter a new political era.
If only…..
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It is easy to see given how close recent polls have been (between 5-7% points separating the Conservatives and Labour) that a vote for UKIP is a vote for Labour, in the sense that it is weakening the prospect of a Conservative govt.
If you are a Eurosceptic (like myself) the only real option is Conservative, as while they do not readily or in fact openly condone the EU, they do (backbenchers in particular) regard it with some caution and suspect, unlike Labour or the Liberal Democrats. While we should not openly walk into a european federation governed from Brussels, we should not be niave to the benefits of economic co-operation with Europe.
I do feel this is close to where their jurisdiction should end. We should make our own laws, govern ourselves from Westminster and perhaps most importantly control our own borders! We have our own bureaucracy we don’t need Europe’s!
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The vote for UKIP is a vote for Labour argument is no different to saying a vote for the Green party is a vote for the Conservatives or even a vote for the Liberal Democrats is a vote for Labour/Conservatives depending on the seat.
I think you’ll agree where UKIP are the far right of the Conservatives, the Green party are the far left of Labour. And those that vote Green won’t want a Conservative government and those that vote UKIP won’t want a Labour government.
In case you haven’t noticed a lot of the Eurosceptic Conservative people have either left the Conservative party or generally removed from important roles. I don’t see the Conservatives ever removing us from Europe even if they are not completely pro Europe.
I suspect the reason for this was/is, although we have a Eurosceptic country, we don’t as a country understand enough about Europe to know why we are Eurosceptic and so beyond thinking it’s silly to expect us to use kilos instead of pounds, we can’t call British chocolate, chocolate and vegetables have to be uniform we don’t know enough to care enough about Europe to have it as a main reason for voting for a party and if the Conservatives squabbled over Europe again, they’d loose votes.
Look at how British people barely bother to turn out to EU elections (wasn’t it 38% turn out last year!) and when they do bother to vote, protest votes are obviously rife (2 BNP MEPs!)!
To be honest I don’t know if I’m Eurosceptic or pro-Europe, getting a balanced view of Europe to an extent of truly understanding if we are better or worse off in Europe is hard to say the least!
I suspect we are better off (would definitely cost the economy a lot to get out now) and I’d prefer to have close ties to Europe as strong trade links means much less chance of conflicts with a European country in the future.
We might believe right now we’ll never have another war with Europe like the second world war, but who knows what will happen 50+ years from now when oil has pretty much run out, world population has increased significantly and maybe resource shortages (food, fresh water….) could push countries to consider conflict over limited resources!
I suppose that makes me Europe neutral :-)
BTW lots of European laws are there to protect us from perceived issues. Some of the stuff they come up with is dumb to say the least, but other EU laws are pretty good. There is an argument being part of Europe does protect us to some degree from governments with nutty ideas. Imagine if UKIP gained some power, (some weird coalition government :-) they couldn’t remove us from Europe without a vote and without a lot more information about Europe I’d currently vote no to leaving Europe.
You know if Europe is so bad for Britain maybe the Eurosceptics should try to educate the British public why we’d be better alone (and I don’t mean the scaremonger approach like the BNP has with Islamification of Britain conspiracy theories)?
David
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I regards to EU law making I completely disagree. It is a matter of principle that we should make our own laws in order to protect our our views, culture and traditions not to mention democracy. It is true that some good things have come of European Law, as there have been bad, but the point is we must make these rules for ourselves. If the EU agreed that say prostitution should be legalised across europe or perhaps the use of class A drugs, we the British people would have no say in the matter as the European Courts are the highest courts of appeal, above all British legal institutions….the matter would be “out of our hands” even though it would have a profound and potentially devestating effect on OUR country and lives.
I don’t feel that the Conservatives would argue that Britain should stand alone, but more we are allowed to stand at all. That we have greater freedom to govern ourselves, as opposed to less.
I can’t believe you feel that we need international protection from our own government, just in case we get “nutty” one ;your example being UKIP. Can you really argue that while protecting a Labour government that has grossly misled the public as a means for profitable war. While we pay the price in lives and billions of pounds in Iraq and Afghanistan.
Think of the benefit this money could have had in the NHS or education. Labour are wasteful, during a period of economic growth they chose to spend, spend and spend some more, all while a predictable economic downturn was on the horizon. Is it these types of “nutty” governments that europe should protect us from?
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“I can’t believe you feel that we need international protection from our own government, just in case we get “nutty” one ;your example being UKIP.”
I didn’t mean to label a UKIP coalition government as nutty :-) I can see I associated the example with the earlier statement, wasn’t meant to. Was just an example of how on some important matters EU laws protects us from a new government making wide sweeping changes without a mandate: would be nice if we had more protection as then we wouldn’t have complaints about the Lisbon treaty for example if the government had to consult the people when they change an election pledge.
You do realise what you said here
“Can you really argue that while protecting a Labour government that has grossly misled the public as a means for profitable war.”
Is then contradicted by:
“While we pay the price in lives and billions of pounds in Iraq and Afghanistan.”
If the Iraq and Afghanistan wars were supported for profitable reasons, how can it also cost us billions? If it’s profitable, we’d be making billions, right?
Don’t assume I support the management of the wars. At the time I supported them, but that was based on the assumption the governments in charge (US government and ours to a lesser degree) would have intelligent people involved in the planning and wouldn’t take twice as long as the second world war to get things kind of right!
The Iraq and Afghanistan wars were so mismanaged it’s an embarrassment to every country involved! The concept of taking 9 years to realise to get our troops out of Afghanistan we need an Afghan army to take the place of the coalition forces would be laughable if it wasn’t such a fatal flaw in planning!
So I support the concept of those wars, the intelligence pointed to WMDs in Iraq and Saddam Hussein wasn’t following the UN resolutions. In hindsight the intelligence was apparently wrong, but you can’t make decisions on hindsight and at the time I supported that war, but never imagined it would be managed by the equivalent of the three stooges!
Afghanistan was promoting international terrorism and so something needed to be done. Knowing the background of Afghanistan (Russia couldn’t beat them), invasion wouldn’t have been my first choice! They’d have been better off promoting other countries to deal with the issue or bombing terrorist bases etc… way before invasion should have been put on the table.
David
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‘If only’… I couldn’t agree more with your blog. I’m voting for ‘another party’ in May. I’m praying for a hung parliament – with such a result, the Tory backbenchers will be so livid, (after having a multiple % lead in the polls only a few months ago) with ‘cast iron’ Dave that they’ll initiate a leadership contest to get Cameron out. He’s not a true blue Tory, he’s a liberal lefty – nothing between him and Clegg.
The Tories need a centre/centre right strong leader, to have the guts to give us a referendum on the EU, which the ‘out’ vote will win.
The marxist commissars will freak when we leave, but we can get back to getting this country on it’s feet.No more marxist indoctrination of political correctness, and end to the 120,000 laws which have implanted here by Brussels etc
If you want to see something that’s ‘in your face,’ read www.eutruth.org, especially to all those who think being in the EU is just peachy.
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any party that gets us uot of the european unuonaand lets us run our own country democratically for our own people and make our own rules and not this corrupt euoropean bunch of quangoes whom we did not elect and have no say on how our country is run this is the party to which i would vote for the ones thet care for us and not the money grabbing europhiles that rip us off of every penny they can steal from us with very little to show for it?
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