Liberal Democrats have for the first time taken 1st place in this

Comment on General Election 2010 Poll Results by David.

Liberal Democrats have for the first time taken 1st place in this 2010 general election poll!!!

This polls been running since September 2009 and before the 1st leaders live TV debate the poll results were as follows:

April 10th 2010 poll results
* Labour Party (25.05%, 10,235 Votes)
* Conservative Party (30.88%, 12,620 Votes)
* Liberal Democrats Party (15.95%, 6,518 Votes)

Total Voters: 40,862

Just 10 short days later with a further 27,000 votes from visitors most of which found their way to the poll through search engines like Google.

April 20th 2010 poll results
* Labour Party (22%, 14,954 Votes)
* Conservative Party (26.54%, 18,046 Votes)
* Liberal Democrats Party (26.72%, 18,163 Votes)

Total Voters: 67,987

You can see these and previous weeks figures at https://general-election-2010.co.uk/weekly-general-election-poll-results/

Currently the poll has received 68,000 votes in total. Analysis of the votes since Saturday afternoon (so only new votes over the last 3 days) give the following results:

April 17th-20th 2010 poll results
* Labour Party (12.64%, 1,071 Votes)
* Conservative Party (14.94%, 1,266 Votes)
* Liberal Democrats Party (55.75%, 4,723 Votes)

Total Voters: 8,472

I know the polls on my site aren’t completely accurate, I’ve included none of the above and floating voter for starters which account for about 7% of the vote.

However, with so many visitors a week (over 100,000) it would be really difficult for one parties supporters to manipulate the results: they might increase the vote share by a few percentage points, but not increase the vote from 15% to 55% without leaving a trace that I can’t find (I build websites for a living, I know how to find people cheating in the polls, caught 800 proxy votes for the BNP for example).

These are real people visiting my site and voting in a poll. Obviously they won’t be a true cross section of British voters since not all voters go online, search for general election information and vote in an online poll. There will be barely any OAPs for example since many are still not online, yet they are a significant ‘block’ vote.

What is painfully clear from this poll is 10 days ago the Lib Dems had around 15% of the vote share in my poll and today over 50% of my visitors who vote are voting Lib Dem!

This is a clear message that the Lib Dems support has increased significantly, election changing significant.

I don’t realistically expect to be watching the election night broadcast and as they collate the popular vote for it to be over 50%, but unless something changes (negatively) for the Lib Dems we have a true three horse race for the leadership of the country with I think the popular vote leaders being between the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats (Labour are never going to get the highest % of the vote).

Because of the way our electoral system works and the concentration of Labour support in it’s heartlands there is a serious possibility of either the Lib Dems or the Conservatives winning on popular vote, but Labour winning on actual parliamentary seats!!!

It’s unfortunate British politics works this way, but nothing we the voter can do about it. Before the Lib Dems surge in the polls it looked very likely we’d be getting a hung parliament on May 7th anyway.

Now I’m looking at a very likely hung parliament with a hope the Liberal Democrats win out right or at least have the high number of seats so they can form a coalition government with the Lib Dems having a fair share of the power.

British voters are going to have to vote Lib Dem in the numbers that Labour achieved in 1997 under Tony Blair to win. I know it’s a long shot, but it’s better than the Conservative message of voting Lib Dems means a coalition government since as it stands voting Conservative means a coalition government anyway.

Question is do you want a Conservative/Lib Dem coalition government or a Labour/Lib Dem coalition government.

David