I don’t know much about boundary changes and the electoral commission. My limited understanding is Labour’s support is far more concentrated than the Conservative party.
What this means is Labour either does really well in an area or might as well not even bother fielding a candidate! The Conservatives in comparison have their voters spread more evenly over the country and so the same % of votes countrywide as Labour gets results in less seats. which is why Labour had a major victory with only 3% more of the vote and the polls showing the Tories with 5% more of the vote resulting in hung parliament territory!
There was a recent poll of target seats that had Labour ahead in the polls! It would appear to right Labour off at this stage under estimates how Labours share of the vote in concentrated areas affects the general election results.
I’m expecting more of the vote share to go to the smaller parties (UKIP, Greens, BNP), but not enough for them to have major breakthroughs, but maybe enough to change who wins in many marginal seats. Imagine what would happen if 10% of Conservative voters countrywide voted UKIP instead of Tory. Same concept for Labour. It could make a major difference to the results if the switch to the smaller parties isn’t uniform from the main parties.
David
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