As a Labour voter it saddens me to agree with you on the Conservative percentage.
My poll if off because of all the BNP votes. If you remove about 3,000 of the Other Parties votes (that’s the 1,700 odd BNP votes and the 1,000 Monster Raving Loony party votes) and work out the percentages with what’s left we get:
Conservative : 32%
Labour : 28%
Lib Dems : 20%
UKIP : 8%
Greens : 5%
Still probably not what the popular vote will be (it’s an online poll), but heck of a lot closer to what you’d expect.
I don’t see the Conservatives breaking 40% on the day, (35% maybe if the smaller parties don’t do well) too many traditional Labour voters don’t like David Cameron or the Conservatives to vote against Labour even though they aren’t happy with Labour.
I can see a lot of voters who switched from Conservative to Labour when Labour took power from the Conservatives not ready to go back to the Conservatives (that’s almost a tongue twister :-)). Labours not done enough wrong and the Conservatives not done enough right for a big swing IMHO (Conservatives on 40% would be big).
Not too well off people have done quite well under Labour and until the recession the biggest issue with Labour was they went to war in Iraq. I can’t see many voters (not a large percentage anyway) voting for the Conservatives ONLY over the Iraq war since the Conservatives would have gone to war as well. MPs expenses, they were all at it, so again who is going to vote Conservative for that reason?
David
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