The main general election poll on this site at Who Will You Vote For In The 2010 General Election Poll has been running since September 2009. Since voters intentions change over time and the numbers voting has started to increase, each Saturday I’ll be posting that weeks poll numbers here. Numbers to the left and […]
Continue Reading Weekly General Election Poll Results
I think if we really really really need a change, we should vote for Lib Dem. They havent been in power for 65 years and both criminal parties robbed us. No more crap… VOTE 4 LIBDEMS
I’ve changed the Weekly General Election Poll Results format to show the snapshot results when I compiled the weekly poll results.
This gives a snapshot of the entire (all votes from September 2009) general election poll each Saturday afternoon and the previous 7 days votes side by side.
This also means anyone visiting the site who can do basic maths can work out the current percentages and number of votes for each party at any time they like.
For example as I type this comment the main polls at:
Total Voters: 56,201, so since last Saturday there’s been 15,339 votes!
To work out the percentages take the votes since Saturday (15,339) and divide by 100 = 153.39 that tells you how many votes = 1% of the vote since Saturday.
Work out how many votes a party has had since Saturday, for example currently Labour have a total of 13,342 votes, subtract the Labour total from last Saturdays Labour total votes (10,235 votes) and that gives us the total votes for Labour since Saturday 10th April = 3,107 votes.
We divide the total votes for a party since Saturday (3,107) by the 1% figure (currently 153.39) and that gives us the Labour vote as a percentage = 20.25555772866549318730034552448
Round it to a reasonable number of decimal points and Labour have 20.26% of the vote in the poll since Saturday.
Repeat for all the parties to see what’s going on.
Here’s the main three parties:
Labour : 20.26%
Conservative : 23.35%
Lib Dems : 33.87%
That is a BIG swing to the Lib Dems and if it equated to real results I guess that would be a hung parliament, presumably with the Lib Dems as the biggest party! That would be interesting :-)
I was listening to SKY News earlier about an official poll (think it was Morie) and the unedited voting numbers without taking into account polls are flawed and need manipulating (to take into account age, ethnicity etc…) had a similar result as the above for the Lib Dems (something like Con : 36%, Lib: 35%, Lab 20%). After the pollsters manipulations it was totally different with the Lib Dems on 24%!
David
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If people are voting for a person just because he looked good on tele once ,without knowing his actual polices then thats mad i think people should really look at what the lib dems are offering not how a man can seem on television we are talking about running our country not winning a popularity contest!!!!! For goddness sake please vote on policy and what is best for our country think before you get carried away with Nick Clegg this is not the x factor this election really matter for everyone. Conservative is the way read the manifesto it makes sense.
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Point 1, Have read Lib Dems Manifesto.
Point 2, Nick Clegg is the way forward. It makes sense!
Point 3, Its just a bonus that he is way better than the other 2 on TV…………. get over it.
I also looked at the Lib Dem website Chris, as well as the Conservative one and you know what…I agree with you. I like Cameron and Osbourne despite their toff roots but Clegg and the Libs talk a lot of sense.
Also Vince Cable has impressive credentials as a potential chancellor. Take a look at his recent book on why we we are in the mess we are in.
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I do agree with Hannah. there is a danger of people making the same mistake as before voting for a charismatic leader .
Liberal policies are eccentric and is not possible in the real world . On this score I agree with PM Liberals should get real and people are being lured into the unchartered territory by the media.
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I think he is a man of substance. Of all the three he is the most sincere. He presents his debates and opinions black and white. He appears more genuine and although he has not been rated high on the TV debates i believe he is the person for the job. Sometimes those who can deliver best are not good orators.Watchout voters, for these are tough times. If we give the country to a novice to run, we should not expect any real positive changes, and they will blame it on the ‘fragile’ economy they inherited. It will all be excuses, excuses and excuses. Open your eyes and vote Gordon Brown and the Labour party.
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I would submit that Tony Blair was a “novice” when taking office. He didn’t do badly did he?
He presided over GB’s best period since Harold MacMillan.
Remember that it is not only the ruling party that determines affairs but the long-standing stability of senior civil servants (who seldom get recognition).
Vote Liberal-Democrat and get the sick men of both Tory and Labour (is there a diffenece) out of office once and for all.
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Learn to spell as well!
Morality is sadly lacking in this country at the moment. We need a leader who has the balls to tell the truth, make decisions that aren’t easy to make. A leader who talks straight and listens to what the voters are saying. Afterall, its not what they say that counts but whether they listen to what WE want and work out a solution that helps the majority of people. Nick Clegg seemed like a man who does exactly that. Why vote for the same old rubbish and lies that everyone has been complaining about for years. If you want change then vote for it ! The worst that can happen is we get more of the same. I’m voting for change. Its refreshing to hear a politician on tv actually answer a question with a straight answer. The other two just squabbled among themselves like children in a school yard. It’s getting tedious and irritating beyond belief. Labour and Tory alike are still too opinionated to realise its not what they want that matters. Like i say, If you want change then vote for it.
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Please take this 5 minute test at https://www.politicalcompass.org/
I found it extremely interesting and I think other people would benefit from seeing where on the political landscape they actually sit and which of the three main parties is closest to your allignment. I’ve got nothing to do with the website, just think people should see for themselves rather than just voting for a party because they always have or their parents did etc..
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Made an addition to the 2010 election poll this week, we now have the BNP as a separate voting option.
I re added BNP to the poll on 17th of April at 1:50pm.
I removed the BNP originally because BNP supporters were manipulating the poll and cheating (800 votes via proxy servers).
With less than 3 weeks to the May 6th election and so many visitors I was hoping any BNP manipulation wouldn’t be an issue, never underestimate BNP online campaigning, they are very good at it.
I took the same number of votes the Green party had on the 17th April, took that number from the Other Political Parties option and added it to the new option of BNP.
This put the BNP on 2,379 Votes or 4% of the vote and decreased the Other Political Parties vote by the same amount.
Over the next two days I tracked the BNP share of the vote around 4.25%-4.50% of the NEW votes.
Unfortunately after a couple of days BNP supporters started to campaign again and over this last week there’s been around 1,500 visitors directly from the official BNP website (it’s a very popular site) in a direct response to BNP supporters asking BNP supporters to vote BNP. What some BNP supporters do is post a link to this site on a random BNP article saying go here and vote BNP.
This happens on other websites (Facebook for example), but not at a rate of 1,500 visitors in the space of about 5 days. For example for this entire month (24 days) the site has received less than 4,000 visitors or for the 5 days period about 800 visitors from Facebook. The Facebook visitors are from a variety of groups, BNP, Lib Dems, Labour, Conservative… so they cancel one another out. The vast majority of the rest of the traffic to this site (over 100,000 visitors a week) are from search engines and of the search engine visitors less than 1/5th bother to vote in the polls.
The 1,500 BNP supporting visitors who arrive here direct from the official BNP website to actually vote throws the poll way off, so I’ve removed 2/3rds of those extra votes in the results above (~1,000 votes).
I think I’ve been more than generous allowing 500 of the visitors direct from the BNP official website to count as the real level of the vote share for the BNP is not going to be around 9% as it would be if I left those ~1,000 votes in.
By rights I should have removed the whole lot, but I’m trying to be fair.
Each week I will count the number of visitors from the BNP official website and remove 2/3rds of them so the poll results are not ruined.
It’s already an issue than Liberal Democrat supporters are energised right now after the TV live debates and voting en-mass, (there’s no way almost 50% of the country will vote Lib Dem on May 6th) but at least the majority of these are mostly search engine visitors and not directly from pro Lib Dem websites.
Ready for the BNP supporter attacks that I’m undemocratic and against free speech or I’m scared of the truth or something about a Lib/Lab/Con conspiracy…. just like I got when I removed them last time. Go too far an I’ll push the BNP votes back to the Other Political Parties again as it’s not worth the hassle just to get a better poll.
To BNP supporters, it’s an online poll, stop trying to manipulate it otherwise it has NO value! The BNP 2010 manifesto was released yesterday, there’s one comment with a link to my site on the page that announced the launch and links to the PDF version of the BNP 2010 manifesto (basically every serious BNP supporter will go to that page). That one link resulted is 300 visitors here overnight and I bet the majority voted BNP.
I’m already regretting adding the BNP back on the poll!
David
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Hi David,
I voted BNP and found your site using an internet search engine.
It shouldn’t matter how people access your website every vote should count and is an expression of will.
It seems weird that you would sabbotage your own site what’s the point in doing it in the first place?
You obviously have your own personnel agenda that clouds your judgement!
Well good luck and don’t bother next time round.
Regards
Mario
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As a BNP supporter you would say that.
If the site was getting 1,500 visitors a week directly from the Plaid Cymru Party website and they all voted for Plaid and this pushed their % to 9% say, would you think it right to leave those votes in the poll when they couldn’t possibly gain 9% of the popular vote?
Or if the Lib Dems surge in the vote was mostly from Lib Dem supporting websites specifically telling their visitors to vote Lib Dem in my poll, do you not think to make the poll more valid I should remove some of the votes?
If I let obvious manipulation go unchecked (and the BNP manipulation is very obvious and direct from the BNP’s official website) it makes the poll less valid. Do you honestly believe the BNP are ging to gain 9% of the popular vote? If you think they are why aren’t more search engine visitors voting for the BNP in my poll, take into account one of my top search phrases is BNP Manifesto and BNP Manifesto 2010 (check them in Google)?
The BNP vote after taking away the traffic from the official BNP website is around the 4-4.5% (which is a lot higher than it’s likely to be on May 6th). If the BNP had a massive breakthrough why aren’t the BNP’s vote higher from search engine visitors?
So far this month there has been over 17,000 search engine visitors who have made a search with a phrase including BNP. In comparison the next closest party name Conservative it’s 8,000, with Labour at 6,000 and Liberal at 5,000. Searches including Election are at 200,000, vast majority of the traffic to this site is general searches at the election. The numbers don’t mean there’s 17,000 BNP supporters, 8,000 Conservative etc… just that’s the info they are looking for (note my logs show over 20,000 different keywords, so these are a small percentage of total visitor numbers).
I don’t for one minute think the poll numbers are going to be the actual results on May 6th, there’s been a very clear energising of the Lib Dem support resulting in Lib Dem supporters more likely to find my website, but unlike with the BNP votes I’ve no way to determine what % of the Lib Dem vote is just because of a kind of X-Factor effect** and what’s real countrywide support: if I could determine the %s I would remove some Lib Dem votes as I don’t see how the Lib Dems can gain around 50% of the popular vote.
** Lets imagine the support for the 3 main parties is now split three ways (30% each), but the vote share for the two ‘old parties’ (as Nick Clegg puts it) is falling, while the share for the Lib Dems is on the up. In that situation you are going to have more Lib Dem supporters, especially new Lib Dem supporters searching online for the sort of search phrases that find this website (like Election 2010). So IF they have a 30% share now I’m not surprised the vote share in online polls are way above 30%. It must be very exciting for all Lib Dem supporters right now, hence they are energised.
As it is, if you find my site naturally through a search engine or a link on Facebook (surprisingly don’t get many visitors from Facebook) or other site not specifically saying vote party X, your vote is counted. 2/3ds of votes from the BNP’s official website will be removed. If the Labour parties website started to send 1,500 visitors a week I’d do the same to their vote.
Remember this is only a poll and is just for a bit of fun, don’t take it so blinking seriously.
I plan to change the nature of this website after the election to cover politics generally and in future elections the BNP will be part of Other Parties in any polls I add and I won’t include the BNP’s policies.
Basically the BNP are too high maintenance, Greens and UKIP don’t appear to have a lot of supporters willing to comment online, so in future will only cover the main parties (Labour, Conservatives and the Lib Dems). There’s loads of sites discussing BNP type politics, so there’s plenty of places for BNP supporters to say their piece.
David
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Here’s something which tells you all you need to know about the differences between the Lib Dems and the Tories. The polls over the last week which have shown the Tories with the highest % of the vote, and the Lib Dems with the lowest, are the ones made of the Sun and News of the World readers . . .
Go figure . .
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My wife noticed the SUN/SKY poll right after the second live TV leaders debate on SKY news was a lot lower than the rest of the polls for the Lib Dems (it was Cameron clearly won, Lib Dems 2nd, Labour 3rd) and SKY seamed to concentrate on that one poll for quite sometime as the definitive result!
There’s also the picture they show of the leaders when they show poll results. The Lib Dems bar is lower than the Tories even when the Lib Dems are in the lead. Think what they have done is given the same bar graph space by having the Lib Dem bar wider than the Tories.
David
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