Sadly, whilst every body is entitled to their own opinion and vote (in a democracy), most UK voters perspective of politics is clouded by: a poor understanding of both (especially political) history and economics (thanks to a wanting academic curriculum): virtually no understanding of governance (domestic or foreign): a fiscally driven media more interested in sensation and gloss than substance: and the remnants of a class system that still fuels conservative (not party) political dogma. Some of the above also applies in the US although I suggest (and the UK media should listen) any comparisons between the two polities shows more about the lack of sagacity and understanding of the observer than anything else
Any apolitical analysis of politics in the UK since the World War two…..suggests that the most important ingredient for change (which is by no means a new mantra) is strong leadership and governance, regardless of ideology. Advances for both social welfare and free market best practice have been made by strong administrations on both sides of the coin …….. and of late there has been more and more consensus as both parties lurch toward the centre. Tony Blair called it the third way and on this platform Cameron (without Reality TV – potential PM Debate) would have prior to the recent economic slump been the natural successor to Blair (my blog on this was used by the Times..front page promoting their website….. following Blair’s resignation.)
Nick Clegg for all his populist new found appeal (worrying how ill informed the British public were of current Liberal politics and their personalities……prior to a political X factor) is a lightweight, and without the strap line that the Liberals are the natural party of the centre (consensus politics)and youth on his side …….would be floundering like his predecessors. A far more telling version of the strengths and weaknesses of Clegg could be seen when he was interviewed by Paxman, especially when compared to Cameron……..
This election is basically about the direction to take following the failure for the US to remember that Adam Smith never ruled out interventionist politics..indeed those keen readers of his works will know he was very worried about the effects of greed on his free market philosophy.
Ironically at this election for the first time for years there is a political choice for specific immediate change between on the one hand perceived fiscal stability (Labour – strong Keynesian) as stimulus appears to be slowly working and on the other an attempt (Conservative – not eliminating Keynes by any means) to ‘change gear’ by revitalising the private sector and begin dealing with a ‘tax timebomb’ that many apparently don’t or don’t want to see. Against that a hung parliament (given the real choice that exists) will be an anticlimax bringing, in pragmatic terms, business as usual.
That said, the scenario that might well then transpire is the Hung Parliament will introduce a Brown Clegg pact………however economics will be entrusted in Labour ranks as well as anything of real substance. Cameron will meanwhile benefit by the gradual reality dawning on the voters that nothing has changed………another election will be called early (say after two years if not before) as winters of discontent mount and at that point the Liberals benefit from the promise of cross floor activity from the “Social Democrats” Labourites …..Blair would have been one. At the forthcoming election Labour is extinguished to third party status held for the last 75 years odd by the Liberals…….but a Conservative administration will get in……there will however now be a strong Liberal party as a working concern. It might even benefit by a move from some ambitious Tory politicians into the Liberal camp …..Cameron however having nailed his flag to the mast, will be compelled to take the Tories into more extreme pasture ……..and the Liberals will win the next election with a landslide victory to form their first administration for many a year in 2017.
This I suggest is a far more pragmatic answer to those Brits who are seeking a realistic change to the political canvas and business as usual….. a Liberal party blatantly Centre half Left ….with importantly strong Leadership (Clegg could possibly hold on as a figurehead but very questionable given the likes of Milliband being in his ranks ……forget Cable and the others they are with exceptions deadweight) and Governance.
All this of course presumes that the Liberals are not dumb enough to introduce PR just when there glory days are re-achievable!!
