Update: Mike Amesbury announced he would be standing down as the MP for Runcorn and Helsby on 10th March 2025, rather than face a recall petition Therefore a by-election will be held in 2025.
According to Lord Ashcroft Polls on 14th March 2025: “Reform are ahead of Labour by 40% to 35% when we weight respondents according to their stated likelihood to turn out and vote at the by-election, with the Conservatives in third place on 10%. This represents a 20% swing from Labour to Reform since the general election.
However, when we include only those who say they are certain to vote, the Reform lead rises to 9 points (42% to 33%) – a 22% swing since July.”
It is highly likely that there will be a by-election in 2025 for the Runcorn and Helsby constituency.
See the 3 reasons why a recall by-election can be called.
Why is a Runcorn and Helsby By-Election Likely?
On the 24th February 2025, the MP for Runcorn and Helsby, Mike Amesbury, was given a 10-week custodial sentence for punching a constituent multiple times. Upon appeal, the prison sentence was later reduced to a suspended sentence for two years resulting in the former Labour MP avoiding jail time; he spent just 3 days in prison.
This opens the following possibilities for a by-election.
Mike Amesbury Resigns
The former Labour MP, Mike Amesbury, (currently an independent MP) resigns. This results in a by-election.
By-Election Recall Petition
Recall By-Election
Mike Amesbury MP was sentenced to 10 weeks in prison on 24 February 2025 after pleading guilty to assault by beating. This is one of the conditions required for a recall petition. However, a recall would not be initiated until any appeal against the sentence has been concluded.
If Mike Amesbury refuses to resign and all his appeal options are exhausted the recall petition would be initiated.
Note: He pleaded guilty, so all he could appeal was the sentence, which he has already appealed and had reduced.
For an MP to be recalled (resulting in a by-election) 10% of the electorate in that constituency must vote for his recall via a petition. Based on past recall by-elections, it’s highly unlikely Mike Amesbury will avoid a by-election.
Therefore, baring Keir Starmer calling an early UK general election in 2025 (highly doubtful), there will be a Runcorn and Helsby constituency by-election in 2025.
Runcorn and Helsby General Election Results 2024
Runcorn and Helsby General Election Results 2024
The 2024 UK General Election was held on Thursday, 4th July 2024. A total of 7 candidates ran for election. The Runcorn and Helsby General Election results were a Labour Hold with a majority of 14,696 votes.
Electorate Size – 70,801
Turnout – 59.7%
The table shows the vote share for each of the 2024 Runcorn and Helsby candidates.
| Candidate/Party | | Votes in 2024 | | Vote Share % | | Vote Change % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Mike Amesbury Labour Party | 22,358 | 52.9% | 4.2% | |
Jason Moorcroft Reform UK Party | 7,662 | 18.1% | 13.4% | |
Jade Marsden Conservative Party | 6,756 | 16.0% | -20.8% | |
Chris Copeman Green Party | 2,715 | 6.4% | 3.5% | |
Chris Rowe Liberal Democrat Party | 2,149 | 5.1% | -1.6% | |
Danny Clarke Liberal Party | 479 | 1.1% | 1.1% | |
Paul Murphy Social Democratic Party | 116 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
Who do you believe will win the by-election in 2025?
Reform UK, which came second in the Runcorn and Helsby general election 2024, appears to be the bookies favourites for a by-election win.
What do you think?
