It is highly likely that there will be a by-election in 2025 for the Runcorn and Helsby constituency.
See the 3 reasons why a recall by-election can be called.
Why is a Runcorn and Helsby By-Election Likely?
On the 24th February 2025, the MP for Runcorn and Helsby, Mike Amesbury, was given a 10-week custodial sentence for punching a constituent multiple times. Upon appeal, the prison sentence was later reduced to a suspended sentence for two years resulting in the former Labour MP avoiding jail time; he spent just 3 days in prison.
This opens the following possibilities for a by-election.
Mike Amesbury Resigns
The former Labour MP, Mike Amesbury, (currently an independent MP) resigns. This results in a by-election.
By-Election Recall Petition
Recall By-Election
Mike Amesbury MP was sentenced to 10 weeks in prison on 24 February 2025 after pleading guilty to assault by beating. This means a trigger for a recall petition has been met. However, a recall would not be initiated until any appeal against the sentence has been concluded.
If Mike Amesbury refuses to resign and all his appeal options are exhausted the recall petition would be initiated.
Note: He pleaded guilty, so all he could appeal was the sentence, which he has already appealed and had reduced.
For an MP to be recalled (resulting in a by-election) 10% of the electorate in that constituency must vote for his recall via a petition. Based on past recall by-elections, it’s highly unlikely Mike Amesbury will avoid a by-election.
Therefore, baring Keir Starmer calling an early UK general election in 2025 (highly doubtful), there will be a Runcorn and Helsby constituency by-election in 2025.
Who do you believe will win the by-election?
Reform UK, which came second in the Runcorn and Helsby general election 2024, appears to be the bookies favourites for a by-election win.
What do you think?
