If you look at the BNP vote share in the 2010 general election to the vote share in 2005 subjectively you’ll see they’ve made no real gains.
In 2005 the BNP had 100 odd BNP candidates and gained 0.7% of the popular vote.
If we assume they’d have got the same share of the vote had they had a BNP candidate in every seat, they’d have gained about 3.5% of the popular vote.
In 2010 the BNP had 300 odd BNP candidates and gained 1.9% of the popular vote.
If we assume they’d have got the same share of the vote had they had a BNP candidate in every seats, they’d have gained about 3.8% of the popular vote.
Note: didn’t work the %s out exactly, so might be few tenths of a % out.
In general election terms the BNP are where they were in 2005, which is quite interesting since so are pretty much all smaller political parties (popular vote share barely changed), it’s only Labour and the Conservatives where there’s a significant change and even then it’s not that much of a change.
Basically what the British electorate believed in 2005 has barely changed, we haven’t had a massive shift in any direction, just a small swing to the Conservatives from Labour for obvious reasons.
You might want to bring in the 2009 EU elections, BUT we all know the EU elections and local elections are always used as a way to protest against a sitting government they aren’t happy with. When it comes to general elections, the British electorate do not protest vote.
Looks like the BNP had less than 4% of the electorate behind them in 2005 and that’s not changed in 2010.
I kept telling BNP supporters just this fact over the last 6 months or so that they have less than 4% of the popular vote, but they wouldn’t believe me :-)
As I’ve described in the past I don’t have a problem with a British National Party per se, I’m all for British patriotism, but the current BNP are still too close to their fascist/racist/neo-Nazi roots (the National Front) and as long as the party is controlled by those who started in the National Front, the BNP will never gain an MP in the first past the post electoral system.
The BNP also have some backwards ideas, but if they get away from their racist past that should change.
The BNP will gain MEP’s and local councillors from time to time in proportional representation voting systems with the benefit of protest voting, but they won’t break into Westminster with such a negative past in the form of it’s leadership.
Nick Griffin is the BNP’s Gordon Brown, they both have too much baggage that cost their parties votes.
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