I Used to be a Remainer, but I’m Alright Now!

One year before the 2016 EU referendum I was Pro EU and would have voted Remain without hesitation. 3 months before the vote I was a Brexit supporter and voted Leave.

I’ve been interested in politics for decades, like many I spend a lot of time following politics and in 2009 I even built a website in anticipation of the 2010 general election. The site generated millions of visitors and was one of the top sites in Google for General Election UK searches.

I was very pro EU, the very first comment I made on the new site was defending the EU, I wrote:

I don’t want us to leave the EU, financially speaking we are much better off in than out. August 29th, 2009: David Law

If you read my UK Local and European Election Results you will see I was concerned at BNP MEPs, it was why I started the site. This result “British National Party : 943,598 votes 6.2% (+1.3%) 2 seats” felt wrong!

I saw the EU as the future, it was obvious as time passed we’d transfer more power to the EU and eventually the EU politicians and bureaucrats would be more important to our day to day lives than politicians in London. I wasn’t concerned at this, I don’t have a problem in principle with the EURO, an EU army, sharing resources, all the sort of stuff Euroskeptics worry about (I’m not a Euroskeptic).

Low EU Election Voter Turnout

However, I was concerned UK politicians and the media used the EU as an excuse for our problems; and more importantly the British electorate cared so little about European Parliament elections that we’ve never even had 40% turnout during the 8 EU elections we’ve participated in! As a believer in democracy that worries me a LOT!

Almost a decade later I know a lot more about the EU and though I’m still Pro EU (I love the concept) I no longer see the EU as the UK’s best future, I see major risks of remaining. Also very happy about the demise of the BNP as a political party, it’s pretty much dead and I hope it stays that way.

EU Reform

No Hope of EU Reform

Few people believe the EU is perfect and many (including myself) believe the EU requires serious reform to thrive long-term. A year before the referendum vote I believed the EU would eventually reform for the better, I had hope.

In the final 6 months before the referendum vote I watched how dismissive the EU was of David Cameron (UK PM at the time) asking for concessions to in effect placate enough UK voters to vote Remain and this killed any hope I had of future EU reform!

Prior to the referendum vote to leave the EU.

• The UK was the 5th largest economy on the planet.
• 2nd largest European economy.
• 2nd largest EU net contributor to the EU budget.
• In GDP terms the UK economy was the same size as the 18 smallest EU economies.

Below is all 28 EU member states, the UK economy was equal to these 18 EU countries economies: Ireland, Denmark, Finland, Czech Republic, Romania, Portugal, Greece, Hungary, Slovakia, Luxembourg, Bulgaria, Croatia, Slovenia, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Cyprus and Malta.

If the risk of the UK leaving the EU isn’t a good reason to at least consider EU reform! What the hell will it take?

This put me on a path to do far more detailed research and I wasn’t happy with what I found.

I’d assumed being in the EU was awesome for the UK economically etc… that’s the Pro EU/Remain narrative. We joined the EU in the 70s when the UK economically was a basket case and joining fixed all our economic problems!

It’s rubbish.

A few interesting UK economic facts.

UK was the 6th largest economy when we joined the EU, our placing has moved around the 5th/6th place over the past 4 decades, but overall not a lot changed.

In the 45 years before we joined the EU the UK economy suffered 4 quarters (one year) in recession.

In the 45 years since joining the EU the UK economy suffered 20 quarters (five years) in recession.

I’m not blaming the EU for UK recessions, just showing the narrative EU membership is awesome for the UK economically isn’t straightforward.

The UK has the lowest exports as a % share of GDP in the EU!

This statistic surprised me a lot, I’d assumed we exported a lot, but relative to other EU countries we are the worst!

There are so many other reason to leave.

European Human Rights Act is no longer fit for purpose. So much of it has been corrupted that the UK struggles to deport foreign murders, rapists, paedophiles, terrorists… Of course we need a Human Rights Act, but will the EU ever reform it or will it continue to support the criminals over the victims?

Immigration from cultures that are not compatible with British culture are surging into the EU both legally and illegally. As a member of the EU we had very little control over this.

AI and automation is very likely to result in world-wide mass unemployment. We will need a new way to ‘pay’ people, the current system is highly unlikely to work if in the future the majority of work is performed by AI/robots. I fear this (along with resource shortages) could result in conflicts/wars. Sad to say, but the UK needs the option to shut its borders and as an EU member that’s not an option (unless all EU members go the same route).

I can also see the EU loosing more member states long-term (decades from now). Politics tends to swing too far to the left/right and then tends to over correct. We’ve generally been in center-left political waters in recent decades, but it looks like the EU is VERY left-wing biased; it’s only a matter of time before member states revolt and swing to the right (maybe far-right). Better to be out of the EU early so the UK can adjust it’s direction away from a political block that’s slow to react.

I have other reasons, but that will do for one article.