There’s around 45 million people eligible to vote in this country, of

Comment on Are the BNP Racists? by David.

There’s around 45 million people eligible to vote in this country, of those about 15 million voted in the EU election, of those ~one million voted BNP.

1/15th of those that bothered to vote, voted BNP.

You look at past general elections (not EU/local) you’ll find until recently turn out tended to be over 70%.

I made a post about the 2005 election turn out at https://general-election-2010.co.uk/uk-general-election-2005-voter-turnout/ where turnout had dropped to 61.3% which I think is the second lowest turnout this century (2001 election was just below 60% turnout, the lowest ever).

EU and local elections tend to be used to make protest votes when the electorate is angry, the perception being the EU/local elections aren’t important (much lower turn out as well). But when a general election comes around turn out increases, people care far more about general elections than other elections for obvious reasons and vote who they want in not as a protest.

Taking into account voter turn out, likelihood of a voter making a protest vote at the EU/local elections compared to a general election the BNP are likely to loose protest type vote support shown during EU/local elections.

If the BNP can only muster 1/15th of the vote (that’s their core voters AND protest voters) during an election where the perception is it doesn’t really matter who they vote for so “let’s kick Labour in the nuts”. When the perception is an election is important the BNP are highly unlikely to increase their support unless something other than voter apathy and protest voting is in play.

Unless I’ve missed something there’s no big swing in support to the BNP since the EU elections as was shown by the recent by-election results where the BNP lost their deposit and Labour won. Surely if the BNP had made a break through nearly into the centre grounds of politics (where most votes are) we’d have seen it in the by-election results.

That gives the BNP until the next general election to change minds, what could possibly happen that will persuade millions to vote BNP between now and then?

The people may well be angry at Labour, but the polls show they are turning to the Conservatives, not the BNP.

I will agree with one thing you pretty much said, the electorate are fickle and do change allegiance due to anger, but they aren’t angry enough to vote BNP.

Look at German history and how the Nazi party came to power, it took a depression and a feeling of unfair treatment due to the Treaty of Versailles after World War 1 to generate enough anger to vote for a nationalist party to give them a foot in the door where they then used politics (like banning various political parties) to gain full power.

David