I’m traditionally a Labour voter, but recently I’ve found myself drawn to the Liberal Democrats. After the live TV leaders debates I’m hoping for a big swing to the Lib Dems from the Conservatives to keep the Tories out of government for at least another 5 years.
The most recent polls shows a hung parliament with who will have the most seats (Labour or Conservatives) not clear despite Labour polling in 2nd or 3rd place in most polls! This is despite the Conservatives having more of the popular vote than Labour and the Lib Dems.
I see Labour and Lib Dems as similar on many policy areas and could see them working well together in a coalition government. Don’t believe what the Conservatives and some in the media say that coalition governments don’t work, there are examples of strong coalition governments around the world.
If the current polls are to be believed we could see a Labour/Lib Dem coalition government with closing on 400 MPs (that would be a strong mandate from the British electorate). If Labour and the Liberal Democrats can work together in government with a set of policies both parties are willing to support (many policy areas they are very close to one another, far closer than the Lib Dems and the Conservatives are) we could see a very strong coalition government.
Which brings me to tactical voting.
Labour support tends to be concentrated in it’s heartlands (the North) while Conservative support is more evenly spread around the country. This means a 5% drop of support country wide will impact the Conservatives number of seats far more than Labour, look at Scotland where the Tories are pretty much non existent. This is why Labour can take quite a bit of a hit in the popular vote % country wide and still do very well, but the same is not true for the Conservatives (no idea how it works with the Lib Dems).
I would be content with another Labour government or a Liberal Democrat government, but even with the polls indicating good things for the Liberal Democrats, on the day of the general election will those polls result in votes? My general election polls shows the Lib Dems in the lead!
What voters like you and I can do is vote tactically to keep the Conservatives out of power and either vote Labour when the Lib Dems are unlikely to win or vote Liberal Democrats when Labour are unlikely to win.
Which is why I’ve compiled a list of Conservative seats that have a small majority and are vulnerable IF Lib Dem and Labour voters (and other voters for that matter who don’t want a Tory government) work together to take the seats.
Note the % values below is the swing needed to take or protect the seat from the Tories
Conservative Seats Labour Voters Should Vote Liberal Democrat
Bournemouth West Constituency 7.6%
Chelmsford Constituency 9.2%
Devon Central Constituency 5%
Devon West & Torridge Constituency 5.4%
Dorset North Constituency 8.6%
Dorset West Constituency 4.6%
Eastbourne Constituency 1.4%
Guildford Constituency 0.2%
Harborough Constituency 8.4%
Ludlow Constituency 4.4%
Meon Valley Constituency 4.9%
Newbury Constituency 6.4%
Solihull Constituency 0.2%
Totnes Constituency 5.8%
Wells Constituency 5.7%
Weston-Super-Mare Constituency 4.3%
Worcestershire West Constituency 6%
Voting Liberal Democrat in the above seats will keep the Conservatives out of those areas if enough voters vote tactically.
Conservative Seats Liberal Democrat Voters Should Vote Labour
Basingstoke Constituency 6.3%
Beverley & Holderness Constituency 6.2%
Clacton Constituency 8.5%
Clwyd West Constituency 0.1%
Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale & Tweeddale Constituency 3.9%
Enfield North Constituency 2.4%
Enfield Southgate Constituency 2.7%
Filton & Bradley Stoke Constituency 1.6%
Finchley & Golders Green Constituency 0.7%
Forest Of Dean Constituency 4.3%
Gravesham Constituency 1.4%
Hemel Hempstead Constituency 0.4%
Ilford North Constituency 4.1%
Kettering Constituency 0.4%
Monmouth Constituency 9.9%
Peterborough Constituency 8.9%
Preseli Pembrokeshire Constituency 1.5%
Putney Constituency 4.8%
Reading East Constituency 1.7%
Rochester & Strood Constituency 1.1%
Scarborough & Whitby Constituency 2.7%
Selby & Ainsty Constituency 4.3%
Shipley Constituency 1%
Shrewsbury & Atcham Constituency 3.6%
Sittingbourne & Sheppey Constituency 0.1%
Somerset North East Constituency 0.5%
St Albans Constituency 2.9%
Staffordshire Moorlands Constituency 3.9%
Thanet South Constituency 1.8%
Wellingborough Constituency 1.2%
Wimbledon Constituency 5.7%
Wirral West Constituency 1.5%
Wrekin, The Constituency 2.9%
Voting Labour in the above seats will keep the Conservatives out of those areas if enough voters vote tactically.
Conservative Target Seats
Below are vulnerable seats that with a small shift the Conservatives can gain!
Conservative Target Seats Currently Controlled by Labour
Aberconwy Constituency 3.9%
Basildon South & Thurrock East Constituency 2.1%
Battersea Constituency 0.8%
Bedford Constituency 8%
Birmingham Edgbaston 4%
Blackpool North & Cleveleys Constituency 8.5%
Bolton North East Constituency 12%
Bolton West Constituency 12%
Bradford West Constituency 8.3%
Brentford & Isleworth Constituency 8.3%
Brigg & Goole Constituency 7.8%
Brighton Kemptown Constituency 4.8%
Bristol North West Constituency 5.7%
Broxtowe Constituency 4.4%
Burton Constituency 4.8%
Bury North Constituency 5%
Calder Valley Constituency 2.7%
Cardiff North Constituency 2.5%
Carmarthen West & Pembrokeshire South Constituency 5.3%
Chatham & Aylesford Constituency 8.3%
Chester, City of Constituency 2.2%
Cleethorpes Constituency 6.1%
Colne Valley Constituency 2.5%
Corby Constituency 3.1%
Crawley Constituency 0.1%
Croydon Central Constituency 0.7%
Dartford Constituency 1.9%
Derbyshire South Constituency 5.5%
Dewsbury Constituency 8.9%
Dorset South Constituency 3.7%
Dover Constituency 0.4%
Dudley North Constituency 1.1%
Dudley South Constituency 8.9%
Dumfries & Galloway Constituency 5.7%
Ealing Central & Acton Constituency 2.2%
Elmet & Rothwell Constituency 1.4%
Eltham Constituency 7.6%
Gedling Constituency 9.6%
Gillingham & Rainham Constituency 0%
Great Yarmouth Constituency 7.4%
Halesowen & Rowley Regis Constituency 9.7%
Halifax Constituency 8.8%
Hammersmith Constituency 8.4%
Harlow Constituency 0.6%
Harrow East Constituency 6.9%
Hastings & Rye Constituency 2.5%
Hendon Constituency 8.1%
High Peak Constituency 3.8%
Hove Constituency 1%
Ipswich Constituency 1.8%
Keighley Constituency 0.5%
Lancaster & Fleetwood Constituency 8.8%
Leicestershire North West Constituency 9.5%
Lincoln Constituency 9.5%
Loughborough Constituency 3.9%
Milton Keynes North Constituency 1.7%
Milton Keynes South Constituency 3%
Morecambe & Lunesdale Constituency 1.7%
Northampton North Constituency 9%
Northampton South Constituency 3.8%
Nuneaton Constituency 9.7%
Pendle Constituency 5.3%
Plymouth Sutton & Devonport Constituency 1.1%
Poplar & Limehouse Constituency 0.8%
Portsmouth North Constituency 0.8%
Pudsey Constituency 1.7%
Reading West Constituency 1.5%
Redditch Constituency 5.2%
Rossendale & Darwen Constituency 8.4%
Rugby Constituency 5.2%
South Ribble Constituency 5.4%
Stafford Constituency 4%
Stevenage Constituency 8.1%
Stirling Constituency 0.9%
Stourbridge Constituency 2.9%
Stroud Constituency 1.9%
Swindon North Constituency 6.2%
Swindon South Constituency 3.5%
Tamworth Constituency 5.9%
Tynemouth Constituency 1.7%
Vale Of Glamorgan Constituency 3.4%
Warrington South Constituency 9.2%
Warwick & Leamington Constituency 0.3%
Watford Constituency 2.3%
Waveney Constituency 12%
Westminster North Constituency 6.6%
Wirral South Constituency 9.3%
Wolverhampton South West Constituency 5.3%
Worcester Constituency 6.8%
Voting Labour in the above seats will keep the Conservatives out of those areas if enough voters vote tactically.
Conservative Target Seats Currently Controlled by Liberal Democrats
Brecon & Radnorshire Constituency 0.2%
Camborne & Redruth Constituency 7.1%
Carshalton & Wallington Constituency 2.9%
Cheadle Constituency 7.4%
Cheltenham Constituency 0.7%
Chippenham Constituency 4.7%
Cornwall North Constituency 6.9%
Cornwall South East Constituency 1.8%
Devon North Constituency 0.7%
Eastleigh Constituency 1.1%
Hereford & Herefordshire South Constituency 2.4%
Leeds North West Constituency 5%
Newton Abbot Constituency 0.5%
Portsmouth South Constituency 8%
Richmond Park Constituency 7.1%
Romsey & Southampton North Constituency 0.5%
Somerton & Frome Constituency 1.1%
Southport Constituency 9.3%
Sutton & Cheam Constituency 6.2%
Taunton Deane Constituency 3.3%
Torbay Constituency 6%
Truro & Falmouth Constituency 9.3%
Westmorland & Lonsdale Constituency 1.7%
York Outer Constituency 0.4%
Voting Liberal Democrat in the above seats will keep the Conservatives out of those areas if enough voters vote tactically.
Conservative Target Seats Currently Controlled by Other Parties
Angus Constituency 4.2% SNP
Perth & Perthshire North Constituency 3.3% SNP
Wyre Forest Constituency 9.5% ICHC
Voting for the relevant party above will keep the Conservatives out of those areas.
If you think I’ve missed an important parliamentary constituency or made a mistake, please post a comment below.
It is the first past the post system that makes a mockery of our electoral system, not tactical voting. I would love to vote Green in my area, but a Lib Dem vote has the chance of keeping out the Tories. People only feel the need to vote tactically because they feel that it is the only way to make their votes count. The most important issues to me are climate change and electoral reform. I will vote for the party in my area which is most likely to make that happen. The Tories place such little priority on climate change that they did not even state by how much they will cut emmissions over the next decade and ranked it 19th on a list of 19 important issues.
Interestingly, Bosworth does not appear on any of the lists. This is a Tory held constituency and a Tory/Lab marginal at the last general. However at last summers local elections the results were Tory 42%, Lib Dem 35%, Lab 11% suggesting that if the obviously dissolusioned Labour voters vote Lib Dem here, we could clear out another Tory.
If you are considering voting tactically, it is worth taking any recent local election results into account because there have been some big swings, which are not well portrayed by comparing the results of the 2005 general alone.
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Helen,
It is not tactical voting that is needed in a First Past The Post electoral system, it is Tactical standing!
Duverger’s law states that FTTP systems favour 2 parties. You clearly state that you are anti-Tory. You seem to imply that if Labour, LibDem & Tory were the leading 3 candidates (as they seem to be in at least 60% of the constituencies) then you are happy to either switch tactically from Lab to Lib, or vice versa. Agreed so far?
If there are so many people like you, why don’t Labour & LibDems form an unofficial alliance, so that only one candidate from either party (the most likely to win against the Tory) is put up? This will test the hypothesis behind tactical voting to destruction, as it will be impossible for all left-leaners to vote un-tactically! Otherwise, calls & pressure to vote tactically seems to set out to pervert the democratic process as it is currently set up.
This way, no complicated system change is required, & the UK can enjoy 100 years of Progressive sunshine…
Any takers, David Laws & Ed Balls?
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Andrew, I am also very glad you do not live in the UK.
We should have a “vote against” option like “snog, marry, avoid” then the 52% of combined lib and lab votes we have seen could count against the tories.
I see you have my constituency on your list, Shrewsbury and Atcham and told people to vote Labour, LOL. Labour actually came third here, Lib Dems second which was miles behind the conservatives.
I have a friend that doesn’t normally vote Conservative but had to because she had no choice she said. There was a hustings and after seing all 3 candidates for Conservatives, Labour and Lib Dems she said there was no way that she could send either of the 2 other chaps down to the house of commons so voted conservative even though she didn’t agree with the conservative policies.
The Lib Dem candidate looked like Harold Shipman, but in truth my other half used to have him as his doctor. In fact he was the family doctor and when my other half’s grandfather was dying of cancer he said there was nothing wrong with him and he didn’t get the treatment he needed as a result. That was the Lib Dem candidate.
The Labour candidate wanted to abolish the some of the smoking shelters in the town, another friend of mine said he kept talking about Union’s and it was a load of rubbish, she voted Conservative too.
Our local Conservative MP is a very nice chap, he’s done a lot for the area and i’ve never heard a bad thing about him.
Next election I suppose you’d still rather have people voting for Harold Shipman though just to keep the Conservatives out, God Help us!
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